NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXNT20 KNHC 250518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 00N15W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S23W to the coast of Brazil near 04S39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the monsoon trough between 10W-13W and within 180 nm north of the ITCZ and west of 24W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb surface high centered near 27N83W. This is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the basin. A shearline extends from the Central Bahamas westward to the SE Gulf near 23N88W. Moderate to fresh winds are noted within 100 nm north of the shearline with scattered showers. Most of the convection is concentrated over the Florida Straits, Yucatan Channel and SE Gulf waters. The surface ridge will persist over the Gulf through Monday, and shift eastward ahead of a cold front moving into the northern Gulf waters Tuesday morning. The front will sweep southward and exit the Gulf late Wednesday. Winds will become fresh to strong over the NE Gulf through Thursday as strong high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic states. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Channel from 23N87W to 18N85W. Scattered showers are seen east of the trough extending from northwest Caribbean into portions of west Cuba. Scattered showers are noted over the Greater Antilles. Drier air is over the southern Caribbean. Scatterometer data shows moderate trades over much of the Caribbean, with fresh winds S of 15N in the central Caribbean, increasing to pulsing strong winds from the coast of Colombia to 13N overnight. Fresh to strong tradewinds are expected across the south central Caribbean through Monday, and then will be confined to near the coast of Colombia Tuesday through Thursday. A new cold front will move southward into the NW Caribbean Wednesday night, before stalling and weakening from central Cuba to Belize on Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N50W to 27N58W, transitioning to a dissipating stationary front from that point to 23N78W. A shearline is from 23N78W to 23N80W. Scattered showers prevail along the front. Behind this front, a frontal system is dissipating along 27N and west of 60W. A 1025 mb high is centered near 28N45W. To the east, a 1008 mb low is centered near 28N21W, with cold front extending from the low to 22N26W to 24N35W. The stationary front will drift northward to along 27N by Monday afternoon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by strong to gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA […]