SPC Mesoscale Discussions Storm Prediction Center

  • SPC MD 733
    on May 22, 2019 at 7:13 pm

    MD 0733 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK Mesoscale Discussion 0733 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019 Areas affected...southwest into central and northeast OK Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 221912Z - 222045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Monitoring for signs of convective initiation and sustained thunderstorm development. A tornado watch is being considered in the next 1-2 hours. DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis indicates a triple point over southwest OK with a dryline extending southward into west TX. A maritime warm front has progressed northward across the I-44 corridor in OK and a decaying cold front is located from north-central OK northeastward through southeast KS into west-central MO. Surface observations show temperatures rising into the lower 80s over much of OK south of the warm front with dewpoints in the lower 70s. The warmest conditions are located over southwest OK where convective temperatures are close to being breached. A 17z Norman, OK special sounding showed moderate buoyancy but the boundary layer had not destabilized appreciably. Since then, a very unstable airmass has developed over central OK with 3500 J/kg MLCAPE estimated by objective analysis. KTLX VAD data over central OK indicates a supercell wind profile is in place with 50kt effective shear and around 100 m^2/s^2 0-1km SRH. Model guidance indicates the LLJ will gradually strengthen this afternoon into the early evening. Forecast hodographs become most favorable for low-level mesocyclones/tornadoes during the 5pm-8pm period with a classic sickle-shape structure and 0-1km SRH increasing to 200 m^2/s^2. Models are suggestive of a more isolated coverage from near OKC and south/southwest with widely scattered storms possible farther northeast into northeast OK. Although the severe risk is conditional, high-end severe weather would likely accompany any intense supercell. ..Smith/Hart.. 05/22/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 34269902 34669919 35349907 37059625 37089543 36579489 35929496 34119774 34079864 34269902 Read mor […]

  • SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
    on May 22, 2019 at 4:45 pm

    Public Severe Weather Outlook PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1143 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2019 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the portions of the southern and central Plains this afternoon and evening... * LOCATIONS... Southwest into central Missouri Southeast Kansas Northeast Oklahoma * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size Scattered damaging winds * SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into evening from central and northeast Oklahoma into Missouri and central Illinois. Tornadoes, large/damaging hail and severe gusts all are possible. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Marsh.. 05/22/2019 Read mor […]