NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXNT20 KNHC 210511 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1210 AM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Caribbean Sea Gale Warning... A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure building southward over the western Atlantic and lower pressures inland over Colombia will result in winds increasing to gale force near the coast of Colombia Thu night into Fri morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...Atlantic Gale Warning... A cold front is forecast in 48 hours over the central Atlantic from 31N47W to 30N59W to 31N69W. A gale is forecast N of 30N within 300 nm E of front with seas 14 to 19 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from western Africa near 07N12W to 01N22W. The ITCZ continues from this point to 02S30W to the coast of South America near 04S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 05N between 06W and 28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from SE Louisiana near 29N91W to 26N94W to the Bay of Campeche near 18N94W. Northerly winds of 15 to 25 kt and scattered to numerous showers are occurring behind the front. Mainly moderate to locally fresh southeasterly winds cover the remainder of the Gulf basin. Patchy fog is developing in the coastal waters east of the cold front over the northeastern Gulf and this fog is expected to continue through this morning, with low visibilities possible. The cold front will lift back north as a warm front on Thu, followed by moderate to fresh southeast winds that will continue across much of the NW Gulf through Sat. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast late on Sat, reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf by Sun evening and from near SW Florida to near 25N89W and stationary to the SW Gulf Mon. Strong high pressure behind the front will bring fresh to strong northeast to east winds over much of the northern and central Gulf on Mon. CARIBBEAN SEA... Generally fair weather prevails across the Caribbean region supported by widespread dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Satellite images do show patches of low clouds and perhaps embedded isolated showers moving within the trade wind flow. Fresh to strong trade winds are over the central Caribbean, while mainly moderate to fresh trade winds cover the remainder of the Caribbean. High pressure north of the region will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in mainly the central Caribbean Sea, and north of Honduras, with gale force winds to develop near the coast of Colombia at night beginning tonight and through the next several days. Long period north to northeast swell will begin to propagate through the Atlantic waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles beginning late Thu. The swell will continue through early on Sun, then begin to dissipate through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The most notable feature over the subtropical Atlantic is a cold front that enters the discussion area near 31N31W and extends to 26N40W to 23N60W, at which point it becomes stationary to 26N70W, then it becomes a warm front to beyond 31N73W. A line of clouds and likely embedded showers accompany the frontal boundary. Scatterometer data shows a fairly large region of 20-25 kt winds north of the boundary to 32N, with stronger winds north of the area. Weather conditions are quiet over the eastern and tropical Atlantic supported by surface high pressure centered north of the region, and dry air aloft. Fresh to strong winds associated with the front will continue to affect the waters north of the front through tonight. The front is expected to gradually weaken during the next day or two, allowing high pressure to dominate the region by the end of the week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa […]