NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXNT20 KNHC 210548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 148 AM EDT Sun Jul 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A gale is in effect for the coast of N Colombia from 11N-13N between 73W-76W, with seas 10-12 ft, until 21/1200 UTC. The same forecast is for 22/0000 UTC to 22/1200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W from 04N-19N, moving W at 15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is noted in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are from 04N- 09N between 20W-27W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 04N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. At this time, no significant convection is noted in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are from 05N- 10N between 46W-53W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W from 04N-20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is from 04N-11N between 53W-60W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W from 06N-18N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is inland over N Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 09N21W to 07N33W. The ITCZ extends from 07N33W to 07N47W. Besides the convection and showers mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 33W-46W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 mb high is centered over the NE Gulf of Mexico near 29N84W. 5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are over the NE Gulf, while the remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt SE winds. Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over the Straits of Florida and the north central Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, a surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula producing scattered moderate convection. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered over the NE Gulf near 28N86W. A ridge will prevail along the northern Gulf coast through the early part of the week, then start to retreat eastward midweek. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will continue across most of the basin, except fresh to locally strong winds will pulse NW of the Yucatan peninsula each night through Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the sections above for details on the gale, and tropical wave. 20-30 kt winds are noted elsewhere over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is W of Jamaica, and over the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are over the Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. More showers are over the NW Caribbean. High pressure N of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through next week. Winds will reach near-gale force strength each night along the coast of Colombia through Sun night. Fresh easterly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras each night this weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. Convection associated with the activity in the Gulf of Mexico is also seen in the western Atlantic along the S Florida coast moving inland in addition to the northern Bahamas mainly west of 77W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 27N67W to 20N68W with scattered showers. Another trough is analyzed from 25N47W to 30N41W with isolated showers. Surface ridging is seen across the rest of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 29N63W and a 1020 mb high near 29N51W. Moderate easterly winds are seen between Cuba and the Bahamas, E of 78W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are noted off the coast of Western Sahara and Mauritania. Over the W Atlantic, a surface ridge along 30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds across the region through Tue night. The ridge will start retreating eastward Tue enabling a trough to move into the NW waters Thu. Fresh to occasionally strong E winds will pulse N of Hispaniola each night through the middle of next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa […]