NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXNT20 KNHC 162320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning... A cold front passes through 32N72W, across Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, across central Cuba, to NE Honduras. Expect GALE- FORCE NW winds within the area that is bounded by the points from 30N79W to 30N80W to 31N81W to 31N79W to 30N79W. Expect the sea heights to range from 11 feet to 14 feet. The GALE-FORCE wind conditions are forecast to continue for the next 36 hours or so. Please, read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, or at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward, moving W 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate rainshowers are from 14N to 20N between 60W and 67W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea- Bissau near 11N15W, to 10N17W. The ITCZ continues from 10N17W, to 05N28W, 05N41W, and to the coast of Brazil near 04N51W. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong to the south of the line that extends from Africa near 15N17W, to 10N40W, and to 10N61W near Trinidad. Scattered moderate to strong is inland, from 05N to 10N between 08W and 12W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface high pressure spans the entire area. A surface ridge passes through east central Texas, to the Mexico coast to the south of Texas, into the NW part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, on the eastern Pacific Ocean side of Mexico. The wind speeds and the sea heights continue to diminish across the basin. High pressure is building in the wake of a cold front that moved through the Gulf of Mexico yesterday. A weaker front will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday. High pressure, building behind that front, will allow fresh to strong SE return flow off the Texas coast by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes across Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, across central Cuba, to NE Honduras. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong to the northwest of the line that extends from the Windward Passage to NE Honduras. The comparatively greatest amount of precipitation is occurring within 120 nm to the north of Honduras between 83W and 87W. Middle level cyclonic wind flow, from a middle level inverted trough, covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 78W westward. The current cold front, from central Cuba to eastern Honduras, will stall and weaken from the Windward Passage to northeastern Nicaragua on Sunday. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front as it moves across the NW Caribbean Sea. A weak trough will drift westward, toward the Leeward Islands, through early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N72W, across Eleuthera Island in the Bahamas, across central Cuba, to NE Honduras. Expect GALE- FORCE NW winds within the area that is bounded by the points from 30N79W to 30N80W to 31N81W to 31N79W to 30N79W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the west and northwest of the line that passes through 32N58W to 24N70W, beyond the Windward Passage. Gale-force NW winds are associated with the cold front, within the area that is bounded by the points from 30N79W to 30N80W to 31N81W to 31N79W to 30N79W. Expect the sea heights to range from 11 feet to 14 feet in the same area. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N51W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 09N northward between 45W and 61W. A surface trough is along 19N54W 15N57W 11N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from 11N to 21N between 40W and 54W. The current cold front, from 32N72W to central Cuba, will stall and weaken, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage, by late Sunday into Monday. Gale-force winds are expected during this weekend, in the northern waters W of 70W, as an area of low pressure deepens off the coast of the Carolinas. Marine conditions will improve across the area through the middle of the week, as the low pressure moves more to the north of the area. $$ mt