NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXNT20 KNHC 222336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 735 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karen is centered near 12.9N 62.7W at 22/2100 UTC or 70 nm NW of Grenada moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 05N-14N between 55W-65W. On the forecast track, the center of Karen will continue to move away from the Windward Islands this evening, and then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea tonight and Monday. On Tuesday, Karen is expected to pass near or over Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Little change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 26.7N 66.9W at 22/2100 UTC or 350 nm SSW of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails from 23N-31N between 58W-68W. A turn toward the north is expected on Monday, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday, and toward the northeast on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near Bermuda Tuesday night. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A tropical wave along 18W extends from 19N to a 1008 mb low near 10N18W to 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Satellite images show that thunderstorm activity is quickly becoming better organized in association with the low. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is from 05N-16N between 15W- 24W. A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while it moves westward across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Monday. This system has a high chance for tropical formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 34W from 21N southward is moving W at 10-15 kt. Model diagnostics depict this wave well. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of southern Senegal near 13N16W to a 1008 mb low near 10N18W to 10N30W to 07N38W. The ITCZ extends from 07N38W to 09N50W to 09N55W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the sections above, scattered moderate convection is from 05N-12N between 21W-30W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the northern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near the coast of North Carolina. This feature is keeping east to southeast surface flow across much of the Gulf of Mexico. A stationary front over the western Atlantic passes through the Bahamas near 25N77W to the Florida Straits near 24N84W. Scattered moderate convection is from 23N-25N between 80W-88W. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf of Mexico north of the front mainly east of 88W from 23N-26N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere across the basin. The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and lower pressure associated with the stationary front to the south will weaken as the high spreads southward and the front dissipates for the start of the week. Thus, winds and seas will gradually lessen into Monday. Overall high pressure will dominate through much of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for information on Tropical Storm Karen in the SE Caribbean. A surface trough extends from E Cuba near 21N75W to 19N79W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the trough. An E-W stationary front is over the Florida Straits enhancing convection across Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and tstorms are also seen in the SW Caribbean south of 10N and west of 79W due to the influence of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Latest scatterometer data depicts light to gentle winds across most of the basin, except near T.S. Karen. Karen will move to 13.7N 63.8W Mon morning, 14.9N 64.8W Mon afternoon, and 16.3N 65.4W Tue morning. Karen will change little in intensity as it curves northward Tue afternoon through Wed while passing near Puerto Rico, then move north of the area Thu. Meanwhile, large northerly swell will continue to move through the regional Atlantic waters and pass through the NE Caribbean passages through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on the tropical waves and Tropical Storm Jerry. A frontal system extends across the west-central Atlantic, analyzed as a cold front from 32N48W to 29N54W, then continues as a stationary front from that point to 28N66W to the Florida Straits near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the front. Fresh to strong NE winds are along and within 210 nm N of the front between 63W-83W, with near-gale winds N of the front between 65W-70W. To the east, a stationary front over the NE Atlantic extends from 31N13W to 27N28W, then continues as a weak stationary front to 25N34W. No significant convection is noted with the front. Jerry will continue moving northward with little change in strength farther away from the area by Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Karen will move to 13.7N 63.8W Mon morning, 14.9N 64.8W Mon afternoon, and 16.3N 65.4W Tue morning. Karen will change little in intensity as it curves northward Tue afternoon through Wed while passing near Puerto Rico, then move north into the SW Atlantic Thu. $$ ERA