NHC Atlantic Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

  • There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

    No tropical cyclones as of Sun, 17 Nov 2019 03:27:52 GMT

  • Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

    199 ABNT20 KNHC 162322 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 700 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central Atlantic Ocean several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands is associated with an upper-level low and surface trough. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves northwestward and then northward over the open Atlantic. The disturbance is forecast to merge with a frontal system late next week and further development is not expected after that time. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

NHC Eastern North Pacific Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

  • Tropical Storm Raymond Graphics

    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 02:35:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Nov 2019 03:24:23 GMT

  • Tropical Storm Raymond Forecast Discussion Number 9

    Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170234 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Raymond Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 Raymond's cloud pattern has continued to lose organization since the last advisory, with the remaining convection now occurring in a ragged band to the east of the center. The initial intensity has been reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 330/5. A developing mid-latitude deep-layer trough near and west of the northern Baja California peninsula is becoming the main steering influence for Raymond, and this feature should cause the tropical cyclone to turn northward and accelerate during the next 12-24 h. After that, Raymond or its remnants should turn north-northwestward to northwestward as it becomes absorbed into the mid-latitude system. Southwesterly vertical shear is increasing over the tropical cyclone, and it should increase further during the next couple of days. Thus, continued weakening is forecast, and Raymond is now expected to become a depression in 18-24 h, a remnant low by 36 h, and dissipate completely after 48 h. If organized convection does not return to the cyclone, all of these events could occur earlier than currently forecast. Regardless of Raymond's status when it nears the Baja peninsula, rainfall associated with the cyclone and the developing trough will likely spread northward into southern portions of the Baja California peninsula later this weekend. These rains could cause life-threatening flash flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 16.9N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 18.7N 111.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 21.0N 111.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 23.7N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/0000Z 26.1N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

  • Tropical Storm Raymond Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

    Issued at 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 170234 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202019 0300 UTC SUN NOV 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RAYMOND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 110W 34 5 12(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLA SOCORRO 34 60 4(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLA SOCORRO 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Raymond (EP5/EP202019)

    ...RAYMOND SLOWLY WEAKENING... As of 8:00 PM MST Sat Nov 16 the center of Raymond was located near 16.9, -112.1 with movement NNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

  • Tropical Storm Raymond Public Advisory Number 9

    Issued at 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 170234 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Raymond Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202019 800 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019 ...RAYMOND SLOWLY WEAKENING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 112.1W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Raymond. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Raymond was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 112.1 West. Raymond is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the north and a faster forward speed are expected later tonight or early Sunday, and a turn toward the north-northwest is expected Sunday night and Monday. On the forecast track, Raymond or its remnants are expected to move near the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday or early Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Raymond is expected to become a tropical depression when it nears the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula late Sunday, and it should degenerate into a remnant low Sunday night or Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Raymond is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur with isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven