NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 230932 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Sep 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0915 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Kiko is centered near 15.5N 135.3W at 23/0900 UTC moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 14N to 17N between 134W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 15N to 20N between 130W and 134W, and from 09N to 15N W of 136W. A turn toward the west to west-northwest is expected Monday followed by a turn toward the northwest by early Tuesday. Some re-strengthening could begin on Monday, but it is forecast to be short-lived with weakening commencing on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC for more details. Tropical Depression Mario is centered near 24.3N 113.5W at 23/0900 UTC moving NNW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. No significant convection is associated with Mario at this time. A north-northwest general motion should continue through today, before dissipating near the west coast of the central Baja California peninsula on Tuesday. Mario should gradually weaken and is expected to become a remnant low this morning before dissipating on Tuesday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is from 04N to 16N with axis along 95W, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is N of 10N between 90W and 97W. A tropical wave is from 07N to 16N with axis along 106W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 16N between 103W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W to 14N106W to 12N120W to 14N128W, then resumes west of T.S. Kiko from 13N137W to 12N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 07N E of 82W, from 07N to 10N between 84W and 87W, and from 10N to 14N between 112W and 120W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Tropical Depression Mario is centered over the offshore waters west of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas to 8 ft in mixed swell from Mario will gradually subside this morning as Mario weakens off the coast of Baja California Sur between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on T.D. Mario. A weakening cold front will move southward across the Baja California Norte waters late Mon into Tue. Expect a brief period of fresh SW gap winds over the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds over the northern Gulf on Tue. Looking ahead, SW monsoon flow will likely strengthen south of the Tehuantepec region Wed through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Low pressure may develop along the monsoon trough off the southern coast of Mexico by late week, which would further enhance wind speeds and build offshore seas in excess of 8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough through Wed night, then become moderate to fresh through Fri as the monsoon trough lifts northward. Seas will generally remain in the 6-8 ft range, then build to 8 ft or greater by late week off the coast of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Mixed swell from Tropical Storm Kiko is producing a broad area of 8 ft seas roughly from 13N to 23N west of 130W. Moderate to rough seas will persist around the periphery of Kiko through Wed night. Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Kiko. The pressure gradient between Kiko and a surface ridge over the northern waters west of 122W is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds well to the N of Kiko, as indicated by recent satellite wind data. Elsewhere, 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W is producing fresh winds, 8-9 ft seas and numerous moderate convection from 10N to 13N between 99W and 103W. These conditions will persist through Mon evening, then subside as the low is expected to weaken over Oaxaca, Mexico offshore waters. A weakening cold front is forecast to move across the northern forecast waters late Mon through Tue. Long period NW swell will follow the front, with seas building to near 8-11 ft over the waters N of 23N and west of 125W, prevailing through late Fri. $$ Ramos