NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific) National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (East Pacific)

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 210307 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Feb 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0215 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A weak surface trough extends from 07N82W to 02N95W to 03N110W. The ITCZ continues from 03N110W to 03N123W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01S to 04N between 93W and 106W, and from 06N to 09N between 111W and 115W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong ridge prevails across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, and extends to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft in NW swell are noted across the region under the influence of the ridge. On Thu, a cold front moving across the waters N of Punta Eugenia will support fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas in the range of 9 to 13 ft in long period NW swell. Strong winds off the coast of Baja California Norte are expected to diminish to 20 kt or less by Fri morning. However, seas of 8 to 12 ft will continue to move SE, reaching Cabo San Lucas Sat before subsiding. Light to gentle NW winds with seas to 4 ft will dominate across the offshores of Baja during the weekend and early next week. Gulf of California: Winds and seas are forecast to increase across the northern Gulf of California tonight through Fri morning as the aforementioned cold front move across the area. Expect SW to W winds in the 20 to 30 kt range ahead of the front, with mainly fresh N winds behind the front. Seas are forecast to build to near 8 or 9 ft Thu through early Fri. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then dominate the gulf waters through Tue with lighter winds mainly across the waters N of 29N. Gulf of Tehuantepec: The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin by Sun afternoon as a ridge builds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong winds funneling through the isthmus of Tehuantepec will increase to gale force on Sun night but will decrease to 30 kt on Mon morning as winds N of the area shift from northerlies to E-SE winds. Winds and seas will diminish below advisory criteria on Tue evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong winds are forecast across the Gulf of Papagayo most of the forecast period, but mainly during the overnight and early morning hours, with the assistance of the nocturnal drainage flow, and some added enhancement from the easterly gradient flow from the SW Caribbean. Seas will build to 9 ft through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event with wind speeds to near gale force is expected on Tue morning covering the entire offshores of Nicaragua and extending to the offshores of El Salvador. Seas during this period are forecast to reach 11 ft. Gulf of Panama: Mainly gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama through Mon with seas of 3 to 5 ft tonight, and 2 to 4 ft the remainder of the forecast period. On Tue, fresh winds with seas to 5 ft are expected. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure located well north-northeast of the Hawaiian Islands will move ENE and weaken some during the next 24 hours. Its ridge axis extends across the northern forecast waters to just west the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure difference between this ridge and broad low pressure lingering NE the Hawaiian Islands is tightening the pressure gradient across the west-central waters from 06N to 26N W of 120W where latest scatterometer data show fresh NE winds. Seas generated by these winds, combined with mixed NE and NW swell is resulting in an area of seas of 8 to 9 ft covering most of the waters W of 120W. The areal extent of these winds will diminish on Thu as the low pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands tracks northward. Seas will gradually subside through the weekend. Otherwise, a new set of long period NW swell associated with a cold front moving across Baja California Norte will reach the NE waters early on Thu with seas of 8 to 13 ft mainly in the area N of 20N E of 130W. $$ Ramos […]