SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center

  • SPC Oct 19, 2018 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
    on October 19, 2018 at 8:18 am

    Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0315 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A benign pattern for severe weather will persist at least through the Mon/D4-Wed/D6 period, owing to stable air over most of the CONUS with high pressure. By the D7-D8 time frame, the upper trough over the Northeast is forecast to lift out, allowing for some height rises/warming to occur along the Gulf Coast. Predictability is currently low, but a few severe storms cannot be ruled out on Thu/D7 along the northern Gulf Coast with the possibility of a lower-latitude shortwave trough developing. Even so, any potential storms will be working with only marginal instability. Read mor […]

  • SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 19 08:18:03 UTC 2018
    on October 19, 2018 at 8:17 am

    No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 19 08:18:03 UTC 2018. […]

  • SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Oct 19 08:18:03 UTC 2018
    on October 19, 2018 at 8:17 am

    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 19 08:18:03 UTC 2018. […]

  • SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
    on October 19, 2018 at 6:38 am

    SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... Great Basin high pressure will gradually shift to the east as a stronger anticyclone takes shape over the central U.S. This will result in a weaker, yet still persistent, offshore surface pressure gradient across coastal areas of southern California through the day. Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected in these areas. The remainder of the CONUS will be free from larger-scale fire weather due to relatively cool/moist conditions and non-cured fuels. ...Portions of southern California... The aforementioned weakened surface pressure gradient will allow for surface winds to slacken some during the day, though 10-20 mph northeasterly winds will still remain common (gustier in favored terrain). This will result in elevated to locally/briefly critical fire weather conditions given dry fuels and a continued critically dry low-level airmass in place. These conditions should persist through the evening hours. ..Cook.. 10/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read mor […]

  • SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
    on October 19, 2018 at 6:37 am

    SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... ...Synopsis... The greatest fire weather concerns today will reside across portions of southern California, where a strong (1028 mb) high pressure area over the Great Basin will combine with weak surface troughing along/just west of the California coast to produce offshore winds. Elsewhere, relatively cool and wet conditions along with unfavorable fuel states will keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. ...Southern California... The aforementioned offshore flow pattern will result in areas of 15-30 mph northeasterly surface winds amidst a dry surface airmass. This surface flow will be slightly stronger in terrain-favored areas, and will combine with areas of dry fuels and critically low RH values to foster rapid fire spread. Latest model guidance suggests that an areas of slightly stronger surface flow will persist through the mid-morning areas across portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties through mid/late morning, lending some confidence that critical surface wind thresholds will be met in these areas. A critical area has been introduced as a result. Farther south, spotty critical fire weather conditions will occur, although on a less-widespread basis, with elevated fire weather conditions being more common. ..Cook.. 10/19/2018 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read mor […]