SPC Forecast Products Storm Prediction Center

  • SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 14 13:28:01 UTC 2018
    on December 14, 2018 at 1:27 pm

    No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 14 13:28:01 UTC 2018. […]

  • SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Dec 14 13:28:01 UTC 2018
    on December 14, 2018 at 1:27 pm

    No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 14 13:28:01 UTC 2018. […]

  • SPC Dec 14, 2018 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
    on December 14, 2018 at 1:11 pm

    SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... CORRECTED FOR GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible across the western/north-central Florida Peninsula through the afternoon and evening, and possibly across southeastern Georgia and the coastal Carolinas tonight. Locally damaging winds should be the main threat. ...Northern/Central Florida... A closed low-latitude upper low will continue to spread eastward from east TX toward the Lower Mississippi Valley and broader Gulf Coast region through tonight. Multiple extensive northeast/southwest-oriented bands of convection are ongoing this morning over the eastern Gulf of Mexico in advance of an eastward-moving cold front. A warm/moist conveyor ahead of the front will maintain persistent scattered thunderstorms while a gradual moistening of the boundary layer occurs. Prevalent ongoing convection over much of northern FL should effectively limit the northward extent of appreciable destabilization, and thus, the potential for surface-based severe storms. This suggests that west-central/north-central portions of the FL Peninsula should have the most probable severe risk today, which could continue into this evening. Deep-layer shear will increase to around 35-45 kt across this region by the afternoon, which will support continued organization of inland-spreading convection into the western/north-central FL Peninsula. Isolated strong to damaging winds will likely be the primary threat given the linear storm mode. A tornado could also occur with circulations embedded within the line as strong flow in the 0-3 km layer supports enlarged low-level hodographs. ...Coastal Georgia to Eastern Carolinas... Strengthening southerly low-level winds by this evening will transport greater low-level moisture over the coastal Carolinas, where the potential for near-surface-based thunderstorms may increase along the immediate coast as surface dewpoints reach the mid to perhaps upper 60s. Some threat for isolated strong/gusty winds and perhaps a tornado may exist tonight into early Saturday morning near the coast associated with the low-level jet and increased low-level shear. ...Mid-South into MS/AL... While a couple of strong storms may persist across southern AR early today, storm intensity should wane this morning as instability is exhausted in vicinity of the upper low and occlusion. Farther east into AL, stronger mid/upper-level winds are forecast this afternoon, and a pocket of weak instability (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg) may develop amidst surface dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of a cold front. While a strong low-topped storm could occur across southern AL this afternoon, the overall severe potential currently appears low. ..Guyer/Goss.. 12/14/2018 Read mor […]